Daga MAHDI MUSA MUHAMMAD
Yaƙin da ya ɓarke tsakanin ƙasar ƙasashen Iran da Isra’ila yana ci gaba da jan hankulan al’ummar duniya, inda wasu ke ganin zai iya rikiɗa zuwa Yaƙin Duniya na Uku, idan ba a yi taka-tsatsan ba.
Rikicin ya sa mutane da dama, ciki har da shugabannin duniya, suke hasashen cewa, idan yaƙin ya ci gaba da wakana tsakanin ƙasashen biyu, zai iya kawo babban tashin hankali da koma-baya a yankin Gabas ta Tsakiya da ma duniya bakiɗaya. Wasu masu sharhi suna ganin tasirin rikicin ba zai tsaya a Gabas ta Tsakiya kaɗai ba, zai iya mamaye duniya baki ɗaya.
A shekarun baya, ƙasashen biyu sun kasance ƙawayen juna har zuwa juyin juya halin addinin Musulunci da ya faru a Iran a shekarar 1979, wanda ya kawo sabon tsarin mulkin da ya ɗauki adawa da Isra’ila a matsayin wani muhimmin al’amari. Tun da aka fara zaman doya da manja tsakanin ƙasashen biyu, sun kasance suna nuna wa juna yatsa da cacar baki.
Yadda ricikin ya samo asali:
Juyin juya halin Musulunci na ƙasar Iran a shekarar 1979 ya nuna wani sauyi a dangantakar Iran da Isra’ila. Hamɓarar da daular Pahlawi tare da kafa jamhuriyar Musulunci a ƙarƙashin Ayatullah Khumaini ya haifar da koma baya ga manufofin ƙetare da kuma mahangar Iran gaba ɗaya. Duk da haka, a cikin shekarun farko, Iran da Isra’ila sun ci gaba da dangantaka.
Isra’ila da Iran dai na ganin ya dace su tunkari gwamnatin Iraƙi ta Saddam Hussein. Iraki na daga cikin ƙasashe uku na Larabawa da ke fama da rikici a lokacin.
A lokacin yaƙin Iran da Iraki tsakanin 1980-88, an bayar da rahoton cewa Isra’ila ta riƙa bi ta bayan fage tana sayen makamai na dala miliyan 500 a duk shekara, kamar yadda jaridar The Observer ta Birtaniya ta bayyana. Mujallar Time ta bayyana cewa, Isra’ila har ma ta kafa asusun ajiyar banki na Switzerland. Dakarun Isra’ila a birnin Kudus sun yi fatan samar da makaman da za ƙarfafa sojojin Iraƙi wajen yaƙar Iran domin kawar da sabuwar gwamnatin Ayatullah. Dangantaka na ɓoye ya ci gaba har zuwa wani lokaci bayan yaƙin Iran da Iraki ya ƙare, amma alaƙar ta yanke bayan nan.
Iran, wacce a yanzu ƙasa ce mai tsarin mulki irin na musulunci, ta ɗauki Isra’ila a matsayin mai mamaye ƙasar Falasɗinu. Har ila yau Iran tana yiwa Isra’ila laƙabi da ‘ƙaramar Shaiɗaniya, wanda a Turance suke ce mata “Little Shaidan”, yayin da ake kiran Amurka da “Babbar Shaiɗaniya”.
ƙasar Shi’a ta Iran ta so ta zama cibiyar wutar lantarki ta Gabas ta Tsakiya, kuma ta fara ƙalubalantar Saudiyya, Makkah na Sunni. Haka kuma tana ganin Isra’ila da Amurka suna tsoma baki cikin harkokin yankin. Sabuwar gwamnatin Iran ta yanke duk wata alaƙa ta diflomasiyya da Isra’ila, kuma ƙasar ta fara goyon bayan Falasɗinawa da sauran ƙungiyoyi masu adawa da Isra’ila. Wannan al’amari ya zama gagarumin koma baya ga Isra’ila, inda faɗace-faɗace tsakanin wasashe biyu ya haure. A cikin wannan lokaci ne Iran ta fara tallafa wa ‘yan Shi’a na Lebanon, wanda daga baya suka ɗauki siffar Hizbullah.
Hare-haren 2023:
Amma duk da zaman ‘ba a ga maciji’ tsakanin su, ba a samu kai mummunan hari ba sai a shekarar 2023, inda Isra’ila ta takali Iran da yaƙi kuma Iran ta harba rokoki masu linzami sama da 200 a yankin Isra’ila.
A lokacin an mayar da martani game da hare-haren rokokin da Iran ta ƙaddamar kan Isra’ila, inda manyan ƙasashe ke jaddada matsayinsu na cewa Isra’ila ba ta da bakin magana tunda ita ta fara tsokana a lokacin da kashe shugaban HAMAS, Ismail Haniye.
Tuni manyan ƙasashen kamar Birtaniya, firaministan ƙasar Keir Starmer ya tabbatar wa takwaransa na Isra’ila Benjamin Netanyahu cikakken goyon bayansa, tare da yin tir da matakin Iran na ƙaddamar da hare-haren rokokin. Firaminista Starmer ya ce babu wanda zai amince da matakin Iran na harba makamai masu linzami kusan 200, kuma abin da mahukuntan Iran suke buƙatar gani shi ne kassara ƙarfin yaƙin Isra’ila. Shi ma Firaminista Anthony Albanese na ƙasar Australiya, na cikin shugabannin ƙasashen duniya da suka yi tir da matakin na Iran.
A cikin sanarwar da ministan harkokin wajen Isra’ilan Israel Katz ya fitar, Isra’ila ta nuna mamakin yadda Sakatare Janar na Majalisar ɗinkin Duniya Antonio Guterres ya gaza yin tir da wannan hare-hare na Iran tare da haramta masa sake shiga ƙasar. Gwamnatin Isra’ila ta yi barazanar cewa za ta ɗauki fansa game da makaman roƙa da Iran ta harba zuwa ƙasar.
A hannu guda kuma Iran ɗin ta ce muddun Isra’ila ta yi yunƙurin kai mata hari, za ta lalata kayayyakin more rayuwan a babban birnin ƙasar na Tel Aɓiɓi ɗin. Haka zalika, Iran ta ce za ta kai hare-hare a kan “muhimman kadarorin” Isra’ila idan har ta mayar mata da martani.
Babban Hafsan Tsaron Iran, Manjo Janar Mohammad Bagheri ne ya yi wannan gargaɗin, inda ya yi barazanar ƙaddamar da hare-haren da zarar Isra’ila ta ce musu kule. Ya ce dakarun Iran ‘Reɓolutionary Guard Corps’ a shirye suke domin kare ƙasar, da kuma maimaita irin hare-haren da suka kai a daren Talata.
Hare-haren 2025:
Amma yaƙin bai tsaya haka nan ba, a ranar Juma’a 13 ga watan Yunin 2025, kwatsam cikin dare Isra’ila ta ƙaddamar da hare-haren kan cibiyoyin nukiliyar Iran da kuma manyan sojojinta, inda nan take Iran ta fara mayar mata da martani ta hanyar harba manyan makamai masu linzami.
Cikin waɗanda harin ya kashe har da babban hafsan dakarun juyin-juya halin Musulunci a ƙasar – babbar rundunar soji mafi ƙarfi a aasar – Hossein Salami, tare da wasu ƙwararru a harkar nikiliyar ƙasar, kamar yadda kafar yaɗa labaran Iran ta wallafa. Amurka ta ce ba ta da hannu a hare-haren, wanda ya shafi babbar cibiyar nukiliyar Iran, amma Iran ta ƙaryata ta, inda ta ce “Amurka ce ke haddasa komai”.
Tuni dai jagoran juyin juya halin adddinin Musulunci na Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ya ce lallai Isra’ila za ta ɗanɗana kuɗarta akan waɗannann hare-hare da ya kashe manyan jami’an Tehran. Duk da cewa Isra’ila na cewa tana kakkaɓo da dama cikin makaman, wasu masu yawa sun samu tsallake tsaron sararin samaniyar ƙasar, inda suke faɗawa inda aka tura su, ciki har da Tel Aɓiɓ, babban birnin ƙasar, lamarin da ya haifar da gagarumar ɓarna.
Babu cikakkun bayanai game da girman makaman masu linzami da Iran ke amfani da su, to amma an yi imanin cewa makaman na ɗaya daga cikin manyan makamai masu haɗari da ake da su a yankin Gabas ta Tsakiya. Waɗannan makaman sun bambanta dangane da tazarar da za su iya tafiya, akwai mai cin gajeren zango da ake yi wa laƙabi da SRBM.
Bayan burin Isra’ila na lalata abin da ta kira “barazanar nukiliyar Iran” ta hanyar hare-haren da ta kai ranar Juma’a, Benjamin Netanyahu yana da babbar manufa, sauyin mulki a Tehran. A ƙarƙashin wannan yanayi, yana iya ganin cewa hare-haren da ba a taɓa ganin irin su ba za su haifar da tarzomar da za ta kifar da Jamhuriyar Musulunci.
Cikin wata sanarwa ranar Juma’a ya bayyana cewa, ”lokaci ya yi da al’ummar Iran za su haɗa kai don martaba tutar ƙasar da tarihinta, sannan kuma su ƙwaci ‘yancinsu daga mulkin zalunci.”
Tuni dai shugabannin ƙasashen ƙungiyar G7 suka buƙaci gaggauta ɗaukar matakan dakatar da rikicin da ke neman ƙazancewa a Yankin Gabas Tsakiya ciki har da ƙulla yarjejeniyar tsagaita wuta a Gaza, sai dai basu ambaci cimma yarjejeniyar tsagaita wuta tsakanin Isra’ila da Iran ba.
A baya-bayan nan ne dai Isra’ila ta yi iƙirarin kashe wani ƙarin Janar ɗin sojan Iran, abinda ya sa adadin manyan Kwamandojin da suka rasa rayukansu kaiwa aƙalla 11. Sai dai har yanzu Iran ba ta ce komai kan ikirarin na Isra’ila ba. Rahotani sun ce Isra’ilar ta faɗaɗa hare-hare ta sama da take kai wa a sassan birnin Teheran, yayin da ita kuma Iran ta sanar da samun nasarar lalata muhimman wuraren sojin Isra’ila ciki har da ma’aikatar leƙen asirin ƙasar a yayin hare-haren da ta kai ɗazu. Rahotanni dai na cewa Iran ɗin ta sake harba makamai masu linzami da dama kan Isra’ila.
Shin rikicin zai kai ga Yaƙin Duniya na Uku?
Wannan rikici na yankin Gabas ta Tsakiya da tsoron yiwuwar ɓarkewar yaƙi a yankin, ya janyo tashin farashin ɗanyen man fetur a kasuwannin duniya. Muddun wannan rikici na yankin Gabas ta Tsakiya da ake fargabar yiwuwar rincaɓewarsa ya gawurta farashin ɗanyen man fetur zai ci gaba da tashin gwauron zabi, saboda tasirin ƙasashen wajen fitar da man fetur zuwa ƙasashen duniya.
Ministan harkokin waje na ƙasar Iran, Esmail Baghaei ya zargin ƙungiyar ƙasashe bakwai masu ƙarfin tattalin arziƙi da “son zuciya da rashin dattako” dangane da sukar harin da ƙasarsa ta kai Isra’ila.
Esmaeil Baghaei ya ce “ƙasashe bakwai masu ƙarfin tattalin arziƙi musamman Amurka na ƙara ta’azzara rashin tsaro da rashin zaman lafiya a yammacin Asia” saboda yadda suke bai wa Isra’ila makamai.
A ranar Laraba ne dai ƙasashen bakwai masu ƙarfin tattalin arziƙi da suka haɗa da Canada da Faransa da Jamus da Iyaliya da Japan da Birtaniya da Amurka, a wata sanarwar haɗin gwiwa sun yi kakkausan suka dangane da harin da Iran ɗin ta kai wa Isra’ila. Ita ma ƙasar Iran ta kira jakadun Jamus da Austria da ke ƙasar a ranar Alhamis domin su bayar da bahasi kan sukar da ƙasashensu suka yi wa Iran ɗin.
Jaridar Economic Times ta ba da rahoton fitacciyar mai hasashe, Baba ɓanga, wacce ta yi gargaɗi mai tsanani game da yiwuwar ɓarkewar yaƙin duniya na III biyo bayan ƙaruwar tashe-tashen hankula a yankin gabas ta tsakiya. Haka shi ma shugaban Colombia, Gustaɓo Petro, kamar yadda jaridar Times of India ta ruwaito, ya yi gargaɗin yiwuwar fara yakin duniya na III daga wannan rikicin. Ya kuma soki goyon bayan wasu ayyukan kisan ƙare dangi da manyan ƙasashen duniya ke yi.
Shugaban ya ƙara jaddada buƙatar ɗaukar matakan samar da zaman lafiya cikin gaggawa daga Majalisar ɗinkin Duniya domin kaucewa ɓarkewar yaƙiin duniya na III. Sakataren tsaron Birtaniya Grant Shapps ya bayyana damuwarsa yana mai cewa duniya na iya shiga babban yaki da zai kai ga yaƙin duniya.
Wanda ya ke cewa matuƙar ba a dakatar da rikicin ba, akwai yiwuwar ɓarkewar rikice-rikice da za su shafi manyan ƙasashen duniya kamar China, Rasha, Koriya ta Arewa, da Iran cikin shekaru biyar masu zuwa. Wanda a cewarsa hakan ba makawa zai kai ga yaƙin duniya.
Hugh Loɓatt, wani babban jami’in siyasa a Majalisar Turai kan Harkokin Waje, ya bayyana wani ra’ayi mai sanyaya zuciya, yana mai cewa abinda ya ke zahiri shine ba za a yi yaƙin duniya na III ba. Ya lura da cewa duk da akwai manyan rikice-rikice da tashin hankali a yankuna kamar Ukraine, Gabas ta Tsakiya, da Asiya-Pacific, amma babu alamar cewa za a yi yakin duniya saboda rikice-rikicen a wurare mabanbanta suke faruwa, cewar Times of India.
Rasha ta gargaɗi Amurka kan shiga yaƙin Isra’ila da Iran:
Kakakin gwamnatin Rasha, Dmitry Peskoɓ ya shaida wa kamfanin dillancin labaran ƙasar TASS cewa shigar Amurka cikin yaƙin Isra’ila da Iran ka iya haifar da ”mummunar ƙazancewar yaƙin”.
Amurka da Rasha na goyon bayan ɓangarorin biyu da ke yaƙi da juna:
Yayin da Donald Trump ya buƙaci Iran ta “miaa wuya ba tare da sharaɗi ba”, kuma rahotonni ke cewa yana duba yiwuwar kai mata hari, ita kuwa Rasha na kallon Iran a matsayin babbar ƙawa.
A farkon wannan shekarar ne, ɓladimir Putin ya sanya hannu kan wata ƙawance mai ƙarfi da takwaransa na Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, inda wani ɓangare na yarjejeniyar ya buƙaci ƙulla ƙawancen tsaro tsakanin ƙasashen biyu. Haka kuma Iran na samar wa Rasha jirage marasa matuƙa, da suka taka muhimmiyar rawa a yaƙin da ƙasar ke yi da Ukraine.
Ma’aikatar harkokin wajen Rasha ta yi Allah-wadai da hare-haren Isra’ila kan Iran, haka kuma mataimakin ministan harkokin wajen ƙasar ya gargaɗi Amurka da kada ta bai wa Isra’ila taimakon soji. “Saboda hakan zai iya dagula yanayin da ake ciki,” kamar yadda ya bayyana.
Da alama rikicin zai haifar da cin karo tsakanin Rasha da Amurka, kuma zai iya zama babbar barazana a dangantakar Amurka da Rasha, wadda ta ɗan fara inganta bayan sake zaɓar Donald Trump.
Yanzu idon duniya ya karkata ga ƙasashen biyu, inda wasu ke tambayar cewa Iran na da ƙarfin murƙushe Isra’ila? Yayin da tashe-tashen hankula ke ci gaba da ta’azzara, wani abu ɗaya tabbatacce shi ne, ba za a taɓa warware rikicin da ke tsakanin Iran da Isra’ila ba (domin yaƙi ne tsakanin adalci zalunci), musamman ganin yadda aka jima da shata layi, tun bayan juyin juya halin Musulunci, wanda Ayatullahi Khomaini ya jagoranta.
Mene ne matsayin Nijeriya a rikicin Gabas ta Tsakiya?
Gwamnatin Tarayyar Nijeriya ta yi tir da harin da Isra’ila ta kai wa Iran a daren Juma’a, inda ta buƙaci ɓangarorin biyu su kai zuciya nesa.
ƙasashe irin su Nijeriya, Algeria da Afirka ta Kudu da Benin dukkanin su sun fito ƙarara sun yi tir da matakin da Isra’ila ta ɗauka na kai wa Iran hari, suna cewa hakan zai iya haifar da gagarumin rikici wanda illarsa ba zai misaltu ba. Sai dai wasu ƙasashen kuma sun yi gum da bakunansu.
