*Tattalin arziki da zaman lafiya na fuskantar rashin tabbas
*Cikakken rahoto kan yaƙin da Amurka da Isra’ila ke yi da Iran
Daga SANI AHMAD GIWA a Abuja
Rikicin da ya ɓarke tsakanin ƙasashen Iran da Isra’ila tare da shigar ƙasar Amurka ya ƙara dagulewa bayan kashe jagoran addinin Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei a wasu hare-haren da Amurka da Isra’ila suka ƙaddamar.
Bayan harin, Shugaban Amurka Donald Trump ya buƙaci al’ummar Iran su tuntsurar da gwamnatin ƙasar.
Rikicin dai ya zama ɗaya daga cikin manyan batutuwan tsaro da siyasa da ke ɗaukar hankalin duniya a halin yanzu. Rahotanni daga manyan kafafen yaɗa labarai na duniya sun nuna cewa rikicin na ƙara ta’azzara a yankin Gabas ta Tsakiya, lamarin da masana ke ganin ka iya zama babbar barazana ga zaman lafiyar yankin da ma tattalin arzikin duniya bakiɗaya.
Sabon rikicin ya zo ne bayan jerin hare-hare da martani tsakanin Iran, Isra’ila da Amurka, wanda ya haifar da fargabar ɓarkewar wani babban yaƙi da zai iya shafar ƙasashe da dama a yankin. Duk da cewa rikicin tsakanin Iran da Isra’ila ya daɗe yana faruwa ta hanyar hare-haren wakilai da taƙaddama ta siyasa, sabon yanayin da aka shiga ya nuna yiwuwar rikicin ya rikiɗe zuwa yaƙi kai tsaye tsakanin manyan ƙasashen.
Masana harkokin tsaro sun bayyana cewa wannan rikici na iya zama ɗaya daga cikin manyan ƙalubalen tsaro a duniya a wannan zamani, musamman idan aka yi la’akari da rawar da Amurka da sauran manyan ƙasashe ke takawa a yankin.
Asalin rikicin Iran da Isra’ila:
Dangantakar Iran da Isra’ila dai ta daɗe cike da takun saƙa da matsananciyar gaba tun bayan juyin juya halin Musulunci da ya faru a Iran a shekarar 1979. A lokacin ne sabuwar gwamnatin Iran ƙarƙashin jagorancin Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini ta ayyana Isra’ila a matsayin maƙiyarsu.
Tun daga wannan lokaci, Iran ta kasance ɗaya daga cikin manyan masu adawa da Isra’ila a siyasar Gabas ta Tsakiya. A gefe guda kuma, Isra’ila na kallon Iran a matsayin babbar barazana ga tsaronta, musamman saboda goyon bayan da Tehran ke bai wa ƙungiyoyin da Isra’ila ke kira ƙungiyoyin ta’addanci.
Rahotanni daga jaridun duniya sun nuna cewa Iran na tallafa wa ƙungiyoyi irin su Hezbollah a Lebanon da Hamas a Gaza, waɗanda ke yawan faɗa da Isra’ila.
Wannan lamari ya sa Isra’ila ke zargin Iran da ƙoƙarin amfani da waɗannan ƙungiyoyi domin kai mata hari ba tare da shiga yaƙi kai tsaye ba.
Taƙaddamar shirin nukiliyar Iran:
ɗaya daga cikin manyan dalilan da ke ƙara tsananta rikicin tsakanin Iran da Isra’ila shi ne shirin mallakar makamin nukiliyar Iran. Isra’ila da Amurka sun sha zargin Iran da ƙoƙarin mallakar makamin nukiliya, wanda suke ganin zai iya zama babbar barazana ga tsaron yankin.
Sai dai gwamnatin Iran ta sha bayyana cewa shirinta na nukiliya na zaman lafiya ne kawai, kuma ana amfani da shi ne domin samar da makamashi da kuma bunƙasa fasaha.
A shekarar 2015, Iran ta cimma yarjejeniya da wasu manyan ƙasashe a ƙarƙashin wata yarjejeniya da ake kira JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), wacce ta taƙaita ayyukan nukiliyar Iran domin rage fargabar da ake da ita.
Sai dai a shekarar 2018, Amurka ƙarƙashin gwamnatin Donald Trump ta janye daga yarjejeniyar, tare da ƙaƙaba sabbin takunkumi kan Iran. Wannan mataki ya ƙara dagula dangantaka tsakanin Iran da ƙasashen yamma.
Tun daga lokacin Iran ta fara ƙara yawan tace uranium, lamarin da Isra’ila ta ce ba za ta lamunta ba.
Sabon rikicin ya ƙara kamari ne bayan hare-haren da aka kai kan wasu cibiyoyin tsaro da masana’antar nukiliyar Iran.
Rahotanni daga Reuters sun nuna cewa Amurka da Isra’ila sun ƙaddamar da wani shirin soji da aka kira “Operation Epic Fury”, wanda aka ce manufarsa ita ce lalata wasu muhimman cibiyoyin nukiliyar Iran.
Shugaban Amurka Donald Trump ya bayyana cewa hare-haren na da nufin hana Iran mallakar makamin nukiliya.
A wani bidiyo da ya wallafa a shafinsa na sada zumunta, Trump ya ce Amurka za ta tabbatar da cewa Iran ba ta samu damar ƙera makaman nukiliya ba.
Haka kuma ya yi kira ga al’ummar Iran da su tashi tsaye domin kifar da gwamnatin ƙasar.
Martanin Iran
Iran ta yi Allah-wadai da hare-haren da aka kai mata, tana mai cewa matakin cin zarafi ne ga ikon ƙasar.
A matsayin martani, Iran ta harba makamai masu linzami da jirage marasa matuƙi a sansanonin sojin Amurka a yankin Gabas ta Tsakiya inda sansanonin sojin Amurka ke
Rahotanni sun nuna cewa hare-haren sun shafi wurare da dama ciki har da Isra’ila da wasu ƙasashe da ke da sansanonin sojin Amurka a yankin Gulf.
Iran ta kuma kai hare-hare kan jiragen ruwa da ke ratsawa ta mashigar Hormuz, wacce ke ɗaya daga cikin muhimman hanyoyin jigilar man fetur a duniya.
Masana sun bayyana cewa duk wani rikici a wannan mashiga na iya shafar kasuwancin man fetur a duniya.
Shigar ƙungiyoyin ƙawancen Iran:
ƙungiyoyin da Iran ke goyon baya a yankin su ma sun shiga rikicin. ƙungiyar Hezbollah da ke Lebanon ta harba rokoki zuwa cikin Isra’ila daga yankin kudancin Lebanon.
Isra’ila ta mayar da martani ta hanyar kai hare-hare kan sansanonin ƙungiyar.
A Gaza kuma, ƙungiyar Hamas ta bayyana goyon bayanta ga Iran, yayin da Isra’ila ke zargin Iran da bai wa ƙungiyar makamai da horo.
Masana tsaro sun bayyana cewa waɗannan ƙungiyoyi na taka muhimmiyar rawa a yaƙin wakilai da ke tsakanin Iran da Isra’ila.
Tasirin rikicin ga ƙasashen yankin Gulf
Hare-haren da Iran ta kai sun haifar da fargaba a ƙasashen yankin Gulf kamar Saudi Arabia, ƙatar, Bahrain, Kuwait da Haɗaɗɗiyar Daular Larabawa.
ƙasashen da dama sun yi Allah-wadai da hare-haren tare da kira da a dakatar da tashin hankalin domin kauce wa ɓarkewar wani yaƙi wanda ba a san inda zai tsaya ba.
Wasu daga cikin waɗannan ƙasashe na ɗauke da sansanonin sojin Amurka, wanda hakan ke sanya su cikin haɗari idan rikicin ya ƙara tsananta.
Tasirin rikicin ga zirga-zirgar jiragen sama:
Rikicin ya kuma jawo tangarɗa a harkar zirga-zirgar jiragen sama a yankin Gabas ta Tsakiya.
Rahotanni sun nuna cewa kamfanonin jiragen sama da dama sun soke tashin jirage zuwa wasu biranen yankin saboda matsalar tsaro.
Kamfanonin jiragen sama irin su Emirates, British Airways da Virgin Atlantic sun dakatar da wasu jirage na wani lokaci.
Filayen jirgin sama a wasu ƙasashe kuma sun rufe sararin samaniyarsu domin kare lafiyar jiragen sama.
Tasirin rikicin ga tattalin arzikin duniya:
Masana tattalin arziki sun bayyana cewa rikicin na iya shafar farashin man fetur a duniya.
Rahotanni daga Bloomberg da Financial Times sun nuna cewa duk lokacin da rikici ya ɓarke a Gabas ta Tsakiya, farashin man fetur kan tashi saboda tsoron katse hanyoyin jigilar mai.
Hakan na iya shafar tattalin arzikin ƙasashe masu tasowa da ke dogaro da shigo da man fetur.
Fargabar ɓarkewar babban yaƙi:
Masana harkokin tsaro sun yi gargaɗin cewa idan rikicin ya rikiɗe zuwa yaƙi kai tsaye tsakanin Iran da Isra’ila, hakan na iya jawo shiga kai tsaye na Amurka da sauran manyan ƙasashe.
Irin wannan yanayi na iya haifar da yaƙi mai faɗi a yankin Gabas ta Tsakiya wanda zai shafi ƙasashe da dama.
Hakan kuma na iya haifar da matsalar tattalin arziki da tsaro a sassa daban-daban na duniya.
Shin yaushe yaƙin zai kare?
Shugaban Amurka Donald Trump ya ce hare-haren da ake kaiwa a Iran “za su ci gaba ba tare da ƙaƙƙautawa ba a tsawon mako,” amma daga baya ya nuna alamar cewa abin zai iya ci gaba.
A ranar Lahadi Trump ya faɗa wa jaridar New York Times cewa Amurka da Isra’ila za su iya ci gaba da ƙaddamar da hare-haren tsawon mako huɗu zuwa biyar.
“Da farko muna tunanin a kai mako huɗu zuwa biyar, amma za mu iya ci gaba har fiye da hakan,” kamar yadda Trump ya faɗi a fadar White House ranar Litinin.
Haka nan a ranar Asabar, firaiministan Isra’ila Benjamin Netanyahu ya ce: “Za mu ci gaba da wannan yaƙi har zuwa lokacin da ya kamata.”
Sai dai masana sun bayyana cewa tsawon lokacin da rikicin zai ɗauka zai dogara ne da yadda ɓangarorin za su ci gaba da mayar da martani da kuma yiwuwar shiga tattaunawar sulhu.
Matsayin ƙasashen duniya:
Majalisar ɗinkin Duniya da ƙasashen Turai sun yi kira ga ɓangarorin da su kwantar da hankali tare da komawa teburin tattaunawa.
ƙasashe irin su Faransa, Jamus, China da Rasha sun buƙaci a kauce wa matakan da za su ƙara dagula rikicin domin kare zaman lafiyar yankin da tattalin arzikin duniya.
Rikicin Iran da Isra’ila tare da shiga tsakani na Amurka ya zama ɗaya daga cikin manyan ƙalubalen tsaro da siyasa a duniya a wannan lokaci.
Rahotanni daga jaridun duniya sun nuna cewa lamarin na da sarƙaƙiya, inda siyasa, addini, tsaro da tattalin arziki suka haɗe wuri guda.
Duk da cewa hare-hare da martani sun ƙara ƙamari, har yanzu akwai fatan cewa shugabannin duniya za su yi amfani da hanyoyin diflomasiyya domin dakatar da rikicin kafin ya rikiɗe zuwa wani babban yaƙi da zai iya jefa yankin Gabas ta Tsakiya da ma duniya bakiɗaya cikin bala’i.
Jaridar Manhaja za ta ci gaba da bibiyar al’amuran domin kawo sahihan rahotanni daga manyan kafafen yaɗa labarai na duniya.
