Daga SANI AHMAD GIWA a Abuja
Wata cibiyar bincike kan manufofi a Nijeriya mai suna Neɗtier ta yi gargaɗin cewa kashe fitaccen kwamandan kungiyar ISWAP, Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, na iya haifar da sabbin barazanar tsaro a Arewa maso Gabashin Nijeriya da yankin Tafkin Chadi, duk da nasarorin da sojojin Nijeriya da ƙawayensu suka samu wajen yaƙi da ta’addanci.
An bayyana hakan ne cikin wani sabon rahoto mai taken: “Beyond the Strike: Assessing the Strategic Implications of the Killing of Abu-Bilal al-Minuki.”
Rahoton, wanda Joshua Biem da Dr. Ndu Nwokolo na cibiyar Neɗtier suka wallafa, ya ce duk da cewa kashe al-Minuki babbar nasara ce ta soji, hakan ba yana nufin samun cikakken zaman lafiya nan take ba.
Rahoton ya bayyana cewa an kashe al-Minuki, wanda aka fi sani da Abu-Mainok, ne a ranar 16 ga Mayu, 2026 yayin wani samame na haɗin gwiwa tsakanin rundunar Operation HAɗIN KAI ta Nijeriya da rundunar AFRICOM ta Amurka a Metele, Jihar Borno.
Hedikwatar Tsaro ta Nijeriya ta bayyana wannan samame a matsayin “babbar nasarar yaƙi da ta’addanci mafi muhimmanci a yankin Arewa maso Gabas tun bayan ƙaddamar da Operation HAɗIN KAI.”
A cewar Neɗtier, al-Minuki ya kasance babban jagora a cikin ISWAP, kuma ya samu ƙarfi sosai a tsarin kungiyar ISIS na duniya bayan ɓacewar tsohon kwamandan ISWAP, Mamman Nur, a shekarar 2018.
Rahoton ya ce mutuwarsa ta kawo cikas ga hanyoyin samun kuɗi da gudanar da ayyukan kungiyar, musamman ganin cewa shi ne ke jagorantar tafiyar da kuɗaɗe a yankin Sahel da Tafkin Chadi.
Sai dai cibiyar ta yi gargaɗin cewa wannan lamari na iya ƙara rikici tsakanin ISWAP da Boko Haram ƙarƙashin jagorancin Bakura Doro.
Masana sun bayyana cewa Boko Haram ta sake samun iko a wasu yankunan Tafkin Chadi, kuma za ta iya amfani da raunin da ISWAP ta shiga domin kai sabbin hare-hare.
Rahoton ya ƙara da cewa rikicin tsakanin ƙungiyoyin biyu na iya jawo ƙarin hare-hare kan fararen hula tare da tilasta wa mutane da dama yin gudun hijira a Borno da yankunan iyaka.
Haka kuma, rahoton ya nuna damuwa kan raunin haɗin gwiwar tsaro tsakanin ƙasashen yankin Sahel, musamman bayan janyewar sojojin Nijar daga ayyukan haɗin gwiwa na yaƙi da ta’addanci.
Nextier ta jaddada cewa nasarar soji kaɗai ba za ta kawo ƙarshen ta’addanci ba matuƙar ba a magance matsalolin rashin shugabanci nagari, talauci, rashin aikin yi da matsalolin jin ƙai ba, waɗanda ke taimakawa wajen ɗaukar matasa cikin ƙungiyoyin ta’addanci.
“Ba za a iya kawo ƙarshen tayar da ƙayar baya ta hanyar amfani da soji kaɗai ba,” in ji rahoton.
Cibiyar ta kuma yi gargaɗi game da siyasantar da harkokin tsaro gabanin zaɓen 2027, tana mai cewa anfani da nasarorin tsaro domin siyasa na iya kawo cikas ga yaƙin da ake yi da ta’addanci na dogon lokaci.
Daga cikin shawarwarin da ta bayar akwai ƙarfafa haɗin gwiwar Nijeriya da Amurka wajen yaƙi da ta’addanci, bunƙasa musayar bayanan sirri, da kuma ƙoƙarin dakile hanyoyin samun kuɗin ISWAP.
Har ila yau, ta buƙaci sake ƙarfafa rundunar MNJTF, ƙarin kariya ga al’ummomin Metele da Marte, da kuma faɗaɗa ayyukan farfaɗo da yankunan Arewa maso Gabas ta fuskar shugabanci da tallafin jinƙai.
